The news this morning seems to indicate that the 36 hour track of Isabel will take it through North Carolina, up through Virginia into Pennsylvania and into New York. The width of the possible track is extended to southern Connecticut on the north and out into Ohio on the west. It puts all of Pennsylvania and New York in the possible track. Since hurricane force winds extend more than 100 miles from the center of the storm, persons on either side of the forcast track must be wary of the possiblity of hurricane or near hurricane force winds.

An interesting article on MSNBC this morning analyzes the financial impact of a strong hurricane. Allstate is the largest insurer in the forecast area, with 12.3% of the policies written. A 1 billion dollar impact on Allstate could "blow away" 13% of the company's profit in the latest quarter. And, more ominous, the president of the risk assement group AIR Worldwide said that, compared to the 19 billion dollar losses with Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and 6 billion dollar losses with Hugo in 1989, a hurricane the size and track of the Great Hurricane of 1938 could cause upwards of 75 billion dollars damage in New York and New England. This is, of course, because these areas have become complacent in their concern about a strong hurricane, and that building in coastal areas have, in many cases, been built over areas that were completely destroyed in the 1938 storm. That storm came at a high tide, which resulted in a very strong storm surge.

A film that chronicled an experiment by the Army Corps of Engineers in the 1950s showed what a storm surge could do to the inland bay of Rhode Island with a ten to 15 foot storm surge. The houses built in the cove and inlet areas, especially Warwick Neck, would float away like so many toys. The work that the Corps did in the 50s ended up in the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier, which now protects Providence from storm inundation like that happened in hurricanes in the 50s; one storm producing 13 feet of water in Downtown Providence. But of course, it does nothing for the homes and businesses that are built scant feet above high tide in these coastal areas.

Development in barrier islands are another problem in storm surges, and even cities such as Miami are not immune to the effects. If Hurricane Andrew came ashore 40 miles further north, there is no telling what Miami would have suffered from the wind and tide effects. Storm surges are affected by astronomical high tides, which send the storm surge even higher. Witness the Blizzard of 1978 in New England, which hit in February 1978 with wind speeds of 65 mph gusting to above hurricane strength. There was an astronomical high tide at that time, and waves blown onto the coastal beaches of Massachusetts obliterated many houses along the shore.

With hurricane warnings in place now from Cape Fear to the North Carolina/Virginia border and hurricane watches beyond the watch area in the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point, the exodus of many thousands of people begin. Hurricane hunter aircraft will survey the storm's eyewall development today, which has appeared to be unorganized and winds down to 110 mph, but there is a strong expectation of strenghtening when Isabel crosses the Gulf Stream on its way to the coast. More bulletins today, the release of advisories from the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm EDT, 8 pm EDT and 11 pm EDT.

As is customary in these weather situations, if you are in these areas, stay tuned to local media and National Weather Service radio.




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